Ainslie Daily News

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Jobs Reality and the V Shaped Recovery

Posted | 18-Sep-2020 / Views | 662
Another sea of red on Wall St last night with everything sold off.  The reasons are not completely clear but it would appear to be a mixture of the Fed not being dovish enough yesterday (we want MOAR!) and worse than expected US initial jobless claim numbers. In a world where everything is relative, the market had been high fiving over... Read More...

Jobs Reality and the V Shaped Recovery

Posted | 18-Sep-2020 / Views | 87
Another sea of red on Wall St last night with everything sold off.  The reasons are not completely clear but it would appear to be a mixture of the Fed not being dovish enough yesterday (we want MOAR!) and worse than expected US initial jobless claim numbers. In a world where everything is relative, the market had been high fiving over weekly ... Read More...

No Recovery until 2023

Posted | 17-Sep-2020 / Views | 1059
Last night the US Fed confirmed it was keeping near zero interest rates until 2023 and would continue with at least the current indefinite $120b per month QE program ($80b US Treasuries and $40b Mortgage Backed Securities).  So to be clear, things are SO bad they need to stimulate for 3 more years and yet shares in companies gener... Read More...

Math, Risk and Return of Capital

Posted | 16-Sep-2020 / Views | 961
After this recent Wall St correction the futures markets are telling us the herd are now bullish again with short interest on the NYSE falling sharply.  As Real Investment Advice’s Lance Roberts tweeted below, that leaves little room for tolerance of any unexpected further falls: Such a setup implies the market sees that c... Read More...

DeFi – Undoubtedly the Future

Posted | 15-Sep-2020 / Views | 1107
Decentralised finance, or DeFi, aims to give users an alternative by removing the need to trust centralised parties and traditional financial institutions by opening its doors to the world. This is achieved by building digital services in an open, permissionless, and decentralised manner.    By removing the intermediary an... Read More...

“All Time High Fragility” – Handle with Care

Posted | 14-Sep-2020 / Views | 1093
There is a tonne of investor cash looking for a home in markets at a time where there are no clear safe bets.  The central banks’ low interest rate policy and increasing fear of holding cash in a bank has formed a predicament for those in this ‘situation’.   Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimate that money ma... Read More...

Insolvency Phase – Now v Great Depression – How this ends

Posted | 11-Sep-2020 / Views | 2466
More heavy losses on Wall Street last night signal we could well be in the terminal throes of the “Hope Phase”.  Last night saw the Republican’s stimulus bill blocked by the US Senate and hence the US remains without a bail out package at a time when unemployment figures look to be turning for the worse again and re... Read More...

Lost Silver – Why that’s good!

Posted | 10-Sep-2020 / Views | 1483
When asked why gold and silver have intrinsic value the answer is ultimately about how rare it is and the fact that it can’t simply be expanded at whim like Fiat currency can, and currently is being expanded.  As you expand the supply of a monetary asset you dilute or debase its intrinsic value.  Fiat currency has none.&nb... Read More...

Calm Before the Insolvency Storm

Posted | 09-Sep-2020 / Views | 1962
Raoul Pal’s “The Unfolding” thesis continues to play out.  As we outlined, his thesis plays out in 3 phases.  First is the Liquidation phase we saw in February and March, then the Hope phase that has played out in the (until the last 3 nights) sharemarket bull trap rally, and next comes the Insolvency phase. A... Read More...

Bitcoin In Bullish Retracement?

Posted | 08-Sep-2020 / Views | 1135
Bitcoin has battled for the current week with wild price swings causing traders to remain alert.    The bitcoin price is skipping around $10,000 per bitcoin as bullish investors seize the chance to purchase at under the psychologically significant level.    A month ago, George Ball, the CEO of investment firm Sande... Read More...