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Pushing a String – Why the Fed Can’t Save the Day

Posted | 14-Jun-2019 / Views | 717
History is full of lessons we don’t seem to heed.  Consider the following excerpt from the US House Committee on Banking and Currency: “Governor Eccles: ‘Under present circumstances, there is very little, if anything, that can be done.’ Congressman T. Alan Goldsborough: ‘You mean you cannot push a string.&rs... Read More...

Pressure on the AUD as NAB Survey “Grim”

Posted | 13-Jun-2019 / Views | 786
Since the AUD spiked over 70c after the rate cut last week, it has been on a downward trajectory, reaching lows of around 69.1c as we write. Yesterday we saw a deceleration of China’s PPI (producer price inflation) to just 0.6%.  That is bad news for commodity currencies like the AUD which dropped on the news despite ore prices firmin... Read More...

China Buys Up Gold Amid Trade War

Posted | 12-Jun-2019 / Views | 794
The ramifications of the trade war between the US and China are being felt well beyond the daily sharemarket gyrations off the next Trump tweet.  The tariffs are already hurting and spooking China and they are actively looking for diversification. According to the World Gold Council, central banks continued from the record breaking gold buy... Read More...

Ainslie Intelligence. Analysis this week.

Posted | 11-Jun-2019 / Views | 484
Our Signals report on the previous week in worldwide finance. USD and AUD positions relative to rate decisions and EUR strengthens due to political uncertainty.   ... Read More...

Gold Tests Resistance and NFP Tests Fed ‘Patience’

Posted | 10-Jun-2019 / Views | 685
Friday night saw the latest official US employment figures released (non-farm payrolls or NFP) and it was a shocker of a print.  Against expectations of 175,000 new jobs, only 75,000 were created.  To make matters worse, April and May were revised down by 75,000 and so making it a net zero month, and wage growth disappointed as well. T... Read More...

8 Reasons a Huge Gold Mania Is About to Begin

Posted | 07-Jun-2019 / Views | 1732
A MUST READ today.  Casey Research just penned two articles listing 8 reasons why they think we are on the verge of “an epic gold bull market”.  They believe we are about to see a remonetisation of gold, a paradigm shift in the international monetary system, of an order not seen since 1971.  Gold went up 2300% from 1971 t... Read More...

Bad News is Good News Returns – Here comes Stagflation

Posted | 06-Jun-2019 / Views | 907
Last night was a classic return to the ‘bad news is good news’ days.  Shares rallied as the Fed chair (and other members) dovishly spoke and almost cemented rate cuts to come in the US, even hinting at QE returning.  The market is now pricing in no less than 3 (!) rate cuts this year.  That is extraordinary when you consi... Read More...

Smart Money Running to Safety

Posted | 05-Jun-2019 / Views | 909
The disconnect observed this year in the US sharemarket between price of shares rising against bonds yields falling and general economic data worsening had many perplexed.  Since the big sell off late last year shares jumped back up to new highs in the following early months of 2019 in complete contradiction.  Deutsche Bank plot the exodu... Read More...

Ainslie Intelligence. Analysis this week.

Posted | 04-Jun-2019 / Views | 459
Watch this week's Ainslie Intelligence analysis. See discussion on bubbles, XRP gains and future USD pairs within our software.   ... Read More...

Australia- Not Enough Bullets

Posted | 03-Jun-2019 / Views | 1071
Tomorrow it is almost certain the RBA will cut rates amid a raft of ordinary economic data for Australia.  The majority of economist are calling 2 cuts this year but some are out to as many as 4 in the next 12 months.  The Aussie dollar hasn’t dropped any more since this almost became a certainty a couple of weeks ago but that is be... Read More...