Richard Russell - Don’t Believe This Rally & Prepare Yourself

Posted | 21/06/2012 / Views | 2673
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With continued uncertainty in global markets, the Godfather of newsletter writers, Richard Russell, warned, “You can be sure that the bear market will try to make you believe that you should be in this market.”  Russell also cautioned that “Money is rushing around the globe in a mad search for income and safety.”  Here is what Russell had to say:  “I've always found that it's difficult explaining the action of the primary trend to new subscribers.  The best way to describe the primary trend is to compare it with the great tide of the ocean.  Once the tide turns down (as now) I compare it to a broad irresistible force.  It's a force that can't be timed or described in detail.” 

Richard Russell continues:

“It's an invisible force, but it exerts a pull that has an effect on almost all stocks.  The weaker stocks are swept along rapidly by the primary trend, while the stronger stocks are pulled along more slowly.  I don't know exactly how the market will be down, whether the decline will be slow and subtle or whether it will be a series of sharp declines. 

One way or the other, it doesn't matter to me.  The important consideration is that most portfolios of stocks will be under water by year's end.  You can be sure that the bear market will try to make you believe that you should be in this market.  One way or another, the bear market will have you doubting that it's really a bear market. 

I don't know exactly how the bear will accomplish this, but he will.  Both Rhea and Hamilton (early Dow Theorists) were fooled by bear markets, and I have been fooled by bear markets as well.  This is why I am preparing myself and my subscribers before hand (so we won’t) be tricked by this bear market.  And believe me, the bear will surely try.  So ready yourself.

The core of the market turned down in early April according to my PTI.  What this tells me is that the market will most likely be down for the year 2012.  This checks with my Dow Theory bear signal in May.”

Russell also added:  “Of course, all these ‘ifs’ make for a nervous and neurotic stock market.  The Dow backs off near the close.  August gold steps back a bit near the close, but gold is still holding above 1600.  The market notes that Spanish ten-year bonds are yielding a record 7.3%.  

Suspicions shift from Greece to Spain.  Money is rushing around the globe in a mad search for income and safety, but safety comes first, and investors give up purchasing power for safety.  ‘I'll pay you if you'll just hold my money.’”

Russell had this to say regarding gold: “The bullish target (for gold) is to get over 1650 and then to 1700.  But plenty of sellers and short sellers at 1650 by those who want to stop gold dead.  But I believe gold is in a primary bull market, and the bull market will be stronger than any group of gold bears.  We'll see!”